The Turbulent World of French Politics and How It Affects Me

French politics are notorious for being turbulent and complex, and in 2024 especially, France experienced some important shifts in its political landscape. In this context, many people, foreigners in particular, have had a difficult time grasping the political landscape of France. Be it the language barrier or the tongue-twisting, understanding what's happening in France is certainly a demanding task for newcomers. This has led me personally and many other Sciences Pistes to question what effect the current political situation will have on us. This article will present a brief overview of recent events and explain how these developments impact our lives as students at SciencesPo.

I. What happened? 

In the second round of the 2022 French presidential election, Emanuel Macron won 58,55% of the votes against Marine Le Pen, with 41,45%. While still a victory for the current president, the election showcased a continued rise of support for the right-wing leader Marine Le Pen. The election was also marked by the lowest voter turnout (72%) since 1969, raising questions about voter apathy. While political awareness in France remains high, a large part of the population has trouble identifying with politics and disregards their importance.

The tensions kept rising as the status-quo was being more and more challenged by the opposition and in January 2024, France experienced severe political turmoil. The ruling government, led by then Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, didn’t have a majority in parliament, making the legislative process a tougher challenge. In January as an attempt to counter the far-right’s influence, Macron backed a controversial migration law, simplifying the deportation process and making immigration to France much more difficult for non-EU foreigners. This was followed by the resignation of Elizabeth Borne on Jan. 8. Afterwards, on Jan. 9, Macron appointed Gabriel Attal as PM and organized a cabinet reshuffle. This was all in an effort to mitigate the rise of support for the opposition ahead of the 2024 EU Elections. 

In June 2024, French voters headed to the polls for the European Parliament Election and showcased significant support for Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally (Rassemblement National), which was the front-runner with a remarkable 31,37%. This raised doubts about Macron's authority, leading him to dismiss parliament and schedule snap elections on the 30 June and 7 July.  While this move is recognized as an attempt to both consolidate support and bring the attention to the public, it can also be viewed as an unprecedented political gamble. The results of the election showcased the severe social fragmentation with no party gaining a clear majority. The current division of parties in parliament is as follows:

*Data compiled from French National Assembly website https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/, as of Sept. 13 2024. 

As can be seen, the National Rally party has the most seats, yet no party has a majority. Further, even when looking at possible coalitions within parliament, the main coalitions Nouveau Front Populare (left-wing), and the Ensemble (Macron endorsed) also do not have a majority to form a stable government. The right-wing parties remain divided and are not likely to form a coalition. This means that France currently has a hung parliament, making forming a stable government a formidable task. 

II. Who is the current French Prime Minister?

Following the election in July and Gabriel Attal’s resignation, President Macron had to appoint a new Prime Minister. This was a tough choice, seeing how it needed to be a figure that can gather support from allies and opposition alike. On Sept. 5 2024, Michel Barnier from the Les Republicans party was appointed as Prime Minister. The choice was controversial and followed by backlash from the left coalition NFP, which have the most seats and advocated for their candidate Lucie Castets. 

In his first interview as PM, Barnier presented his stances on the current situation and promised to form a government that is not just right-wing, but also compromises with the left. He has said he will attempt forming a government in the upcoming week. Should he not gather the support of parliament, the opposition can call a vote of no confidence, where parliament can vote for removing him as PM. 

Barnier is particularly insistent on his tough stance on migration, following Macron’s attempts to appease the right as a response to Le Pen’s momentum gains. Macron and the Ensemble alliance have always had a more lenient view towards migration, but public opinion has made them toughen their stance.

III. How are foreign students studying in France affected?

The political turmoil has led to many changes in French society: economic challenges, increase of political protests and violence and a more negative lookout towards migration. The situation has also led to many strikes across France including train strikes in the Côte d'Azur region in August. Such strikes are also planned for the Fall, which raises concerns for Menton students. The migration law that was passed in January increased requirements for acquiring a visa and made it more difficult for migrants to establish work in France. 

As part of drafting said law, politicians from Les Republicains, supported by the far-right, succeeded in adding an amendment concerning international students, requiring them to prove every year they are enrolled in a “real and serious programme” and to deposit a sum of money returned after their graduation. These changes were not supported by Macron and were later proven unconstitutional by the Constitutional Council. In the final draft of the law there was no mention of international students. 

Hitherto, political conversation on the topic has shifted far away from the matter of international students. The ongoing migration legislative efforts mainly concern migrants outside the EU and streamlining of the deportation process. Impact for students is not as severe, beside stricter requirements for visa applications for those outside the EU. Still, uncertainty reigns among students who are not sure how they are affected by the puzzling world of French politics. For now there does not seem to be any imminent danger towards the status of international students seeing how such measures are seen as too controversial and unnecessary for parties on all sides of the spectrum. 

IV. Final words

The changes happening in France now affect our daily lives mainly when it comes to price increases and heightened social tensions. Previously I was hearing many different things, including false news about the dangers that can arise from the political turmoil and it was fairly intimidating. I believe many fellow students also relate to this feeling, but after gathering more insight into the situation, I personally am now more confident as a student in France. While there is no need for us students to fear in this current status, we must remain educated on the matter and follow up with the latest developments to be better informed about the changes happening in France. The domestic political landscape is moving rapidly and is full of unexpected twists. While it might be difficult for foreigners to adjust to it, it is valuable to be well-versed in such topics, in order to know if we are affected by them.