Climate Change, Pakistan, and the Case for Reparations

Pakistan has witnessed months of heavy monsoon rains and severe flooding. An estimated third of the country is now underwater; over 1,300 people have died, while 33 million people have been directly affected. The last time Pakistan experienced similar flooding was in 2010, when millions of acres of cropland were destroyed alongside the lives and livelihoods of over 20 million people. Back then, the Secretary General of the UN, Ban Ki-moon, said that the scale of flooding Pakistan had endured was greater than anything he had witnessed before, with 400,000 cusecs of water making their way down the Indus. This time, however, 700,000 cusecs of water are expected, highlighting the extent of the emergency.

In their 2021 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the environmental crisis intensifies the water cycle, resulting in more extreme rainfall and flooding. This explains the unprecedented downpour that enveloped Pakistan from mid-June to late August, with parts of the country receiving 500%-700% of their usual August monsoon rain.

Although climate change is the likely cause of heavy rainfall, it is notable that Pakistan produces less than 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Despite that, due to its geography, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change; the Global Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan as the eighth most affected country by climate change-related extreme weather events. In contrast, more developed countries in the northern hemisphere – who were the first to industrialize and therefore have produced the greater share of greenhouse gas emissions – have only been mildly affected by such extreme weather events. The global south has faced the more severe impacts of climate change, although it bears less responsibility.

There is a case to be made that Pakistan and other developing countries facing climate change should receive reparations from abroad. Pakistan has to rehabilitate around 15% of its population and requires funds it does not have. And although countries such as Canada and the US have provided donations – $5 million and $30 million, respectively – this is not enough, especially because the total damage exceeds $10 billion, and because Pakistan is facing its most severe cost-of-living crisis. After he visited Pakistan on Saturday, Sept. 10, Antonio Guterres, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, urged members of the international community to provide massive financial support to Pakistan. Guterres suggested a debt restructuring, which would involve writing off a portion of Pakistan’s debt owed or lengthening its repayment period. This would allow Pakistan to have breathing room to rebuild its economy. However, the traditional “lender of last resort,” the International Monetary Fund, does not follow this logic. The fund released $1.1 billion as a part of a larger assistance package to Pakistan as of Aug. 29, 2022, but with the proviso that it undertakes a reduction in its budgetary outlays. Now is hardly the time to cut social assistance expenditure, just when it is needed the most.

Beyond climate change, many internal failures within Pakistan have contributed to this catastrophe. Overpopulation and poor building regulations have led to riverside housing developments that lack adequate safeguards against flooding. Moreover, unsatisfactory disaster management and surveillance mechanisms are likely to have worsened this outcome. Pakistan’s government must now focus on preventative strategies such as building resilient infrastructure since these disasters are now reoccurring. Only $50 million of Pakistan’s budget this year has been allocated to its Climate Change Ministry, which is insufficient. This results from a significant portion of its budgetary expenditure being diverted to defense, given the country’s hybrid civil-military dyarchical system. Interestingly, Pakistan is one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, yet it cannot adequately harvest rainwater because of a lack of dams. Undoubtedly, better governance and allocation of funds could have mitigated the tragedy to some extent.

Climate change is upon us: extreme heat, floods and melting glaciers, all seen in the space of this summer in Pakistan. Developed western nations are responsible for countering the consequences of global warming caused by their industrialization and ongoing polluting activities. There is a need to enact the climate change agenda, as espoused by the United Nations Climate Change Conferences, and accelerate the move to net zero emissions. At the same time, assistance must be given to southern countries facing the effects for which they bear less responsibility. Debt forgiveness, financial aid and expertise are now required. But of course, this does not absolve developing countries of their responsibility. There is a need for better governance and redirection of finances on social development and infrastructure rather than militarization.