Putin's War Changed The World (More Than The Pandemic)

The pandemic transformed the world, but Putin's war is changing it much more, and at lightning speed. In some cases, it is an immediate earthquake; in others, it is a tectonic shift that will have enormous consequences in the future. Vladimir Putin was once considered a genius, an over-the-top strategist. Now, he is a lonely, isolated man who made the mistake of a lifetime — underestimating the Ukrainians and the West. He was a leader to entice; now, he is a violent and dangerous dictator.

Hollywood movies usually display the US president handling a nuclear briefcase, but reality has proven that the Russian president appeals more to this strategy. Russia is an international pariah, dragged into a corner politically, economically, and financially by the man who wanted to make it great again. Although the country has undoubtedly potential to figure among the great powers, the ruling armed kleptocratic regime is a severe obstacle to its development. Russian democracy was already debilitated, and now, repression will probably become even harsher.

Germany is changing: pacifist until a few days ago, terrorized by its past, secured to Angela Merkel's mercantilism, today it decided to rearm — putting in place 100 billion euros for the army, and sending weapons to the defenders of Ukraine. With Germany, Europe awakens: it buys weapons for the first time, and Ursula von der Leyen announced that Kyiv could join the EU, a prospect that, if materialized in a fast accession procedure, could further galvanize the Ukrainian resistance and disrupt Putin’s project.

It is a situation that — if Emmanuel Macron, Mario Draghi, and other Western European leaders rise to the occasion — could lead to the construction of a concrete European Defense. This process would occur under the aegis of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Putin's aggression strengthened the unity of the West to an unexpected level, which until a month ago was considered almost non-existent. Turkey chose to side with the West; Sweden, and Finland could join NATO; and Switzerland abandoned centuries of neutrality, including banking neutrality, by freezing Russian bank accounts. The countries of Eastern Europe, frequently overlooked by the West, have found a new role — starting with Poland and the three Baltic states. The experience and memory of Soviet domination provide both Baltic and Eastern European states with leverage in the European Union decision-making process. Now the EU is no longer just Germany and France. Above all, the EU will undergo a consolidation process to handle foreign policy with coordination. Business and trade can no longer detach from geopolitics.

Recent years have witnessed the rise of autocratic regimes that challenged democratic values, and Putin’s bold move has turned the trend: autocrats and dictators are sturdy in appearance, yet their sturdiness can lead to political isolation, economic recession, and perhaps institutional collapse. Xi Jinping's China was taken aback and showed all its embarrassment. At the UN Security Council, China abstained on the resolution condemning aggression against Ukraine, not vetoing it as Moscow did. It has an onerous balancing act to perform now. Beijing has many clients but no friends; Xi Jinping says he has one, Vladimir Putin, who has chosen excessive adventurism.

As Putin attacks Kyiv, he disrupts the hegemonic agenda of China, which has different methods and timelines for conquering Europe. Putin positions himself as the leader of the new order in the Eurasian supercontinent, a role Beijing has no intention of leaving to others. Not only that, with its aggression, the Kremlin is strengthening the West and its democracies instead of weakening them. China's leader cannot appreciate that: it risks rolling back its strategy of enfeebling America and Europe by years, and it can undermine its theory of the West's inevitable decline. China needs Russia to confront Washington geopolitically and access vital resources, especially energy. But in the enormity of the step taken by Putin, it sees dangers and serious setbacks. Beijing is monitoring, but the conflict might not provide China with the desired loser.

The wave of sanctions bearing down on the Russian economy can potentially accelerate the process of decoupling free and state economies. The dollar and euro currency areas will exclude the Russian banking system. This policy combines with the now strong tendency in China to close down entire sectors of its economy and bring activity back under the stringent guidance of the Communist Party, to the detriment of private individuals who have been the main protagonists of the boom of the past decades. The trend towards decoupling — the dollar-euro area on one side, the yuan on the other — will presumably strengthen the climate of conflict. The latter would entail severe consequences on supply chains and increasing protectionism involving Europe and the world.

The invasion of Ukraine accelerated the character of the new Cold War of the 21st century. The emotion, the tears, the demonstrations that crossed European cities in the last weeks communicate that Putin's assault has not only moved governments, politicians, armies, and diplomacy. Citizens are more in shock than they have been in decades. The tragic pictures and videos from Ukraine outscore even the risk of witnessing gas and electricity prices rise. Indeed, emotions will fade as time goes on, and differences of opinion will come back into focus. Yet, we already comprehend that that morning of February 24 saw the dawn of a new world. Before long, we will understand if we enjoy it.