Juliet Schohn
October 22, 2026
It has been seven months since the U.S. began its war with Iran – a war the American people are still unsure why they are fighting. President Donald Trump’s administration has never been able to come up with a coherent answer for its rationale for the war. The Trump administration has cycled through justification after justification, never settling on an explanation for a war that has already cost lives and carries consequences far beyond the battlefield. One moment, the war is presented as a “preventive” strike; the next, as an act of “self-defense.” At different moments it has claimed it was to liberate the Iranian people from the leadership of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Alternatively, the aim was to destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities or to mitigate Iran’s support of proxy groups like Hezbollah. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reasoned the conflict began because Iran was planning to strike first, or to prevent Israel from acting alone and exerting too much of its own authority in this conflict.
If the main goal was to initiate regime change, then why did the U.S. and Israel kill Khamenei without first finding a successor they deemed more suitable? Instead of making way for a new regime with different values following, the Iranian regime replaced Khamenei with his son Mojtaba Khamenei, who enforces the same conservative policies that his father did. If the war’s aim was to obliterate Iran’s nuclear program, the U.S. and Israel have had partial success, yet Iran still retains some nuclear capabilities.
That disconnect is reflected in the American public’s opposition to the war. According to a University of Maryland poll, only 21 percent of Americans favor the U.S. attack on Iran. This opposition comes particularly from the U.S. history of involvement in the Middle East as well as Trump’s promise to end wars and not become involved in any new ones. Instead, he began a war that he claimed would be a swift victory. It was not. The conflict disrupted oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz for months. This led to rising gas prices around the globe, including in the U.S., violating another one of Trump’s promises to reduce them.
Since early April, the many failed attempts by Trump to create a peace deal have disenheartened the American people. He has announced that a peace deal was imminent thirty-eight times, a claim that loses all merit when it is repeated so frequently without any concrete action to back it up. For example, his parameters for the peace agreement set in June of this year were such that the Iranian regime would not agree. He wanted the Strait of Hormuz open and Iran to cease any development of its nuclear program. In exchange, the U.S. would end its sanctions on Iran, unfreeze its frozen assets and fund the rebuilding of parts of Iran that were destroyed by bombing. Both parties had agreed to a ceasefire in April of 2026, which was fundamentally not enforced because Iran was still blockading the Strait of Hormuz — an act of war.
Trump’s inability to win a war that he said would be over quickly has cast him in an increasingly unfavorable light among the American people. Iran’s control over the flow of goods and oil through the Strait of Hormuz has only deepened this perception. Since World War II, the U.S. has never formally declared war on another nation – despite its involvement in many conflicts – and the war in Iran is no exception. Most news outlets, and even Trump himself, refer to the conflict as a “war.” Congress did not vote on nor approve the attacks on Iran, and has yet to apprehend Trump for his illegal actions, as only Congress has the power to declare war. In the federal government, Congress is supposed to represent the perspectives of the people. When the president fails to consult Congress concerning a power it has jurisdiction over, he infringes on the desires of the people. Will the people have their voices heard this autumn?
How could the Iranian conflict affect the elections?
The United States midterm elections will take place on Nov. 3, 2026, when all members of the House of Representatives one-third of the Senate are up for reelection. Currently, the Republican Party has a majority in both legislatures: holding 218 of the 435 seats in the House and 53 of the 100 seats in the Senate. Due to intense political polarization, members of Congress almost always vote along party lines. During the June House of Representatives vote on whether or not to withdraw from Iran, 211 Democrats and four Republicans voted against the war while zero Democrats and 208 voted to continue the conflict.
If the American people are displeased enough with Republican leadership in the first half of Trump’s term, they have a chance to change the makeup of Congress. Twenty Republican senators are up for reelection; if just a few of these seats are won by Democrats, the makeup of the Senate could balance out or even swing Democratic. The war in Iran has caused economic hardship for many Americans, raising gas prices that in turn affect the cost of transporting goods, making many essentials more expensive, with the consumer price index rising 3.4% in August compared with 2025.
The midterms will be a test to see which voters are still loyal to Trump and his Republican congressional colleagues at the halfway point of his term in office. Do the policies he has accomplished, like getting the “Big Beautiful Bill” passed, outweigh his shortcomings in their eyes? Are his loyalists displeased enough to consider voting for Democrats instead? The polls on Nov. 3 will be the final evaluation of Trump’s past two years in office, and a test of how much the public is willing to forgive and forget.
How could the elections affect the war?
The midterms could also have an effect on the continuation of the war in Iran. Should a Democratic majority be elected to Congress, it may be able to put an end to the war. This ending is contingent on whether Trump listens to and respects the authority of Congress to end war under the 1973 War Powers Resolution. In June, the House of Representatives passed a resolution that ordered Trump to remove armed forces from and cease hostilities with Iran, which he has since violated. A new Congress following the midterms may have to get more creative with its attempts to block Trump’s abuses of power, like halting funding going toward the war.
Ending the war now would leave Trump’s original goals unfulfilled: the people of Iran would remain under the rule of an Ayatollah and the country would retain some nuclear capabilities. However, as seen with Trump’s failed ceasefires and his thirty-eight announced attempts to create a peace deal, these goals are far from being realized, and it does not seem that continued hostilities will bring the U.S. and Iran any closer to an agreement. The end of the war will leave Iran’s position not far from where it was at the beginning of the war, except now with the ability to open and close the Strait of Hormuz.
The midterm elections are one of the few remaining checks on Trump’s authority over the war in Iran. Their outcome will reveal to the world whether Trump’s supporters are still loyal to him after his repeated breaches of the promises that brought them to his side. On Nov. 3, Americans will have the opportunity to make their voices heard and decide whether the administration’s agenda will continue unchecked. The question is no longer simply whether Trump will continue the war, but whether the American people will allow him to.
Photo Source: Lance Cheung, Flickr