United States Midterms 2022: Races to Watch

On November 8, 2022, over 100 million Americans will head to the polls to vote for congressional, gubernatorial, state, and local candidates in what could be one of the most consequential elections in recent history. Democrats hold a delicate congressional majority — 48 Senate seats are occupied by Democrats, with Independents Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont) and Angus King (I-Maine) typically voting with Democrats and Vice President Kamala Harris serving as the tiebreaker in contentious party line votes. The House of Representatives has a slightly larger majority with 221 Democrats and 209 Republicans, but it could still be easily upset as every seat faces re-election. 

Voters have a wide range of issues to consider as they fill out their ballots. Republicans may see a boost in the polls as the Biden administration deals with economic troubles — the annual inflation rate hit a 40-year high of 9.1 percent in June, and corresponding interest rate hikes will soon make it more expensive for Americans to purchase homes and take out loans. However, the aggressive social agenda of the Republican party could push centrist and moderate Republican voters to the left or third-party candidates. In June, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, ruling that abortion is not a constitutionally protected right and sparking a frenzy of abortion bans and restrictions in conservative states. In Texas and West Virginia, recent “trigger laws” have rendered abortion completely illegal — exceptions for rape, incest, and medical emergencies are only accepted in West Virginia and only until the eighth week of pregnancy. Additionally, immigration issues have risen to prominence in national dialogue — the governors of Texas and Arizona have sent large groups of migrants by bus to New York, Washington, D.C., and Martha’s Vineyard despite limited resources for migrant intake. 

As election day approaches, here are some races that could spark partisan turmoil, recalibrate foreign policy relationships or lead to a generational shift in Congress.

Congress 

FL-10

In Florida’s 10th congressional district, covering most of the Orlando metropolitan area, Maxwell Frost gained the Democratic primary nomination in early August. Frost, a 25-year-old progressive activist and former national director of March for Our Lives, will become the first Gen Z member of Congress if he wins the general election. FL-10 is a heavily Democratic district, with 203,000 registered Democrats and 100,000 registered Republicans, and Frost can expect a victory over opponent Calvin Wimbush barring an unprecedented upset. Frost garnered national attention this summer for confronting Florida governor Ron DeSantis with an emotional plea on gun violence during a DeSantis event in Orlando. Frost’s ambitious policy platform includes support for the Green New Deal, a single-payer healthcare system, extensive gun control, decriminalized drug use, and a “future without prison.”

MI-11

In August, Representative Haley Stevens narrowly defeated incumbent Representative Andy Levin in a controversial primary that could impact the relationship between the United States and Israel. Representative Stevens received over $4 million in campaign funding from the United Democracy Project, a super political action committee run by the political action wing of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). Despite Levin identifying a “lifelong Zionist,” former AIPAC president David Victor labeled him as “arguably the most corrosive member of Congress to the US-Israel relationship” due to Levin’s past legislative efforts regarding Israel. In 2021, Levin introduced the “Two-State Solution Act,” which outlined concrete steps the US should take in pursuit of a two-state solution, including recognizing the West Bank and Gaza as occupied territories and ensuring that US defense funding to Israel is not used to establish settlements in the West Bank. While foreign policy is not at the center of Stevens’ platform, her support for the US-Israel relationship will likely be less conditional than Levin’s.

NM-2

In New Mexico’s 2nd district, incumbent Representative Yvette Herrell faces Democrat Gabe Vasquez in a race that could redefine energy policy in the United States’ largest oilfield, the Permian Basin. Since taking office in 2020, Herrell has been a staunch supporter of the fossil fuel industry and voted to restrict government regulation of fossil fuel extraction. Additionally, she has overseen New Mexico’s “Safer and Stronger” public relations campaign, which reminds the public that $700 million in funding for the state’s public school system comes from the oil and gas industry — around 20 percent of total education spending. On the other hand, Vasquez supports a “pragmatic” approach to the fossil fuel industry, balancing government regulation and alternative clean energy sources to mitigate adverse environmental impacts. The Permian Basin produces five million barrels of oil per day, around half of the total US supply, and has deep underground reserves that remain undeveloped. 

FL Senate

Three weeks before the election, incumbent Senator Marco Rubio leads Democrat Val Demings by just two points. Demings, former Orlando police chief and Congresswoman in Florida’s 10th district, has consistently out-fundraised Rubio, more than doubling his donations in the second quarter of 2022. While in the House of Representatives, Demings helped manage Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, served on the Judiciary and Homeland Security committees, and recently passed the VICTIM Act — a bipartisan bill to increase local police force funding to solve homicides and gun crime. Florida, often referred to as a swing state, has seen an increase in conservative voters over the past few years. Donald Trump won the state during his 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns, and endorsed governor Ron DeSantis during his 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Additionally, both Florida senators are Republicans. This race will signify the Democratic party’s potential in Florida — are these expensive campaigns still worth the fight, or should they dedicate their attention to other states and districts?

Gubernatorial

Texas

In Texas, the largest Republican-led state in the country, incumbent governor Greg Abbott will face off against Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke in the general election. Due to his 2018 attempt to unseat Senator Ted Cruz and his short-lived 2020 presidential campaign, O’Rourke is a familiar name to many voters on the national stage. But despite this national notoriety, Abbott currently leads by seven points, with 31 percent of likely voters naming immigration as their top voting priority. Potential deciding issues in Texas include Greg Abbott’s restrictive stance on abortion, immigration policies, and infrastructure developments — a 2021 winter storm in Texas forced a large portion of the state to live without power, running water, or heat for a week, killing an estimated 246 people. Texas is the only state with an independent power grid, and O’Rourke heavily criticized the Electric Reliability Council of Texas for corruption and lack of oversight — he has called for Texas to connect to the national power grid to prevent future tragedies.

Kansas

In Kansas, Governor Laura Kelly is up for reelection against Republican Attorney General Derek Schmidt in a close race with one key issue missing: abortion. Kansas is a pro-choice state — in July, Kansas residents overwhelmingly voted against the “Value Them Both” amendment, which would have removed the state constitution's enshrined right to abortion. However, the state voted for Donald Trump in 2020, and Kelly is the only Democratic governor of a Trump-voting state to run for reelection this year. Kelly has avoided almost all mention of abortion in her campaign, focusing on education and economic issues. Sources close to Kelly have said this is an intentional decision to retain her moderate, bipartisan public image in a purple state. She currently polls only two points ahead of Schmidt — will her avoidance of the abortion controversy lead her to victory in November?

Ballot Measures

Colorado - Initiative 58

In Colorado, the Natural Medicine Health Act would allow citizens 21 or older to use psychedelic mushrooms privately or in regulated “health centers” with trained facilitators. Proponents of the initiative argue that psilocybin offers healing potential to those suffering from mental health issues — Colorado has been ranked as the worst state for adult mental health, and numerous studies show benefits from psilocybin for symptoms of depression, anxiety, and PTSD. However, some critics, including the founder of the Denver-based Society for Psychedelic Outreach Reform and Education, argue that the initiative’s “healing center” framework is purely a way for large corporations to take control of the psilocybin market and put profits over health.

California - Proposition 30

This proposition would increase the income tax by 1.75 percent and use the additional money to support zero-emission vehicle initiatives and wildfire suppression, allowing California to increase firefighter staffing by ⅓ as wildfires grow more intense every year. However, Governor Gavin Newsom has gone against his party to oppose the measure — although he supports a full state transition to electric vehicles by 2035, he has called the bill a “trojan horse” at the hands of rideshare giant Lyft. Te State of California ordered Lyft to transition entirely to electric vehicles by 2030, and Newsom says this bill is an effort to make taxpayers fund these new cars. 

Nevada - Equal Rights Amendment

In Nevada, voters will have the option to amend Nevada’s constitution to adopt a modified version of the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA), which guarantees equal rights regardless of sex. Effectively, this would end distinctions between men and women in matters of divorce, unemployment, property, and more. The ERA was passed by Congress in 1972 and required 38 state legislatures to ratify the amendment by 1979 to be adopted. Only 35 states ratified the amendment by the deadline, but Virginia, Illinois, and Nevada symbolically approved it in the 2010s as the pro-ERA movement began to regain traction. 

Takeaways

Although the next presidential election will not occur until 2024, the midterms will serve as a telling referendum on the presidency of Joe Biden after a tumultuous two years in office. His approval rate reached a yearly high of 46 percent this month — his predecessor Donald Trump ranged from 34 to 49 percent throughout his presidency. Midterms tend to experience vastly lower voter turnout than general elections, with 113 million Americans voting in 2018 compared to 157 million in 2022. Most of this gap comes from young voters and Democrats. Young, progressive voters must learn that midterms are crucial and the ambitious policy proposals of their presidential picks cannot be accomplished without the legislative work of Congress. American Sciences Pistes, apply for your absentee ballot online before the election.