Blooming in Fragments: The Syrian Opposition

“The streets were paved with jasmine flowers,” recalls Haya, a Syrian refugee, in a UNHCR interview. This poignant image, evoking the former beauty of Damascus, also symbolizes resilience amid Syria’s ruins. The jasmine, blooming despite devastation, reflects the Syrian opposition's endurance—fractured but persistent in its quest for freedom over two decades. As jasmine blossoms through cracks, so does opposition to Assad’s regime, embodying hope amid ongoing struggles.

Syria's geographic significance has long made it a stage for global powers. Regional and international actors like the U.S., Turkey, and Iran vie for influence, making Syria a geopolitical linchpin. This external involvement amplifies domestic turmoil rooted in authoritarian rule, initiated by Hafez Al-Assad in 1970 and perpetuated by his son, Bashar. Opposition movements have risen and fallen under oppressive tactics, yet fragments of resistance endure, striving to reclaim Syria’s future. This analysis explores the evolution of Syria's opposition across three key phases: early movements (1980s–2000s), the Civil War (2011–2016), and the fragmentation that characterized Syria before the recent opposition victory.

Part One: Repression Waters The Flowers of War 

November marks a grim anniversary for Syrians: the start of Assad's hegemony in 1970. Hafez Al-Assad’s regime silenced dissent through mass arrests, torture and extrajudicial killings. By the late 1970s, the Muslim Brotherhood launched armed resistance, including assassinations and urban guerrilla warfare. However, the regime’s brutal responses, culminating in the 1982 Hama Massacre, crushed this movement, leaving tens of thousands dead. Fear and repression stifled significant opposition for decades.

In 2000, Bashar Al-Assad’s succession inspired brief hope for reform. Intellectuals initiated the "Damascus Spring," holding forums and publishing manifestos like the “Manifesto of the 99.” Yet, the regime quickly suppressed this movement, arresting activists and silencing dissent. Opposition was pushed into exile, where figures like Radwan Ziadeh advocated internationally for human rights. Despite their efforts, fragmented leadership and limited reach hindered meaningful resistance.

Economic hardship compounded repression in the 2010s, with rising unemployment and poverty fueled by drought and inflation. By 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring, Syrians demanded reform. The regime’s violent crackdown transformed peaceful protests into rebellion, plunging Syria into civil war and reshaping the opposition landscape.

Part Two: The Blooming 

The Arab Spring of 2011 ignited new hope for the Syrian opposition. Protestors demanded freedom and reform, but Assad’s violent response escalated into civil war. The Free Syrian Army (FSA), formed by army deserters, became the opposition’s primary armed force, capturing territory and advocating for democracy. At its peak, the FSA controlled significant areas and achieved victories with Turkish support, like the 2016 Operation Euphrates Shield.

However, the FSA suffered from fragmentation and inconsistent foreign backing. Divided by regional and international interests, its effectiveness waned. Russian military intervention in 2015, involving extensive airstrikes, decisively shifted power back to Assad, leading to the FSA's retreat and the fall of Aleppo in 2016.

Diplomatic efforts also emerged, with the Syrian National Council (SNC) and its successor, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, striving to unify opposition factions and gain international recognition. Yet, these efforts faltered due to fragmented leadership and competing foreign agendas, while rivalries among backers like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey weakened coordination, undermining the opposition’s ability to present a united front against Assad.

As the war intensified, extremist groups like ISIS and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) gained prominence. ISIS, with its brutal campaigns, drew global attention but eroded the broader opposition’s credibility. In contrast, the SDF, supported by the U.S., gained legitimacy by combating ISIS and advocating for Kurdish autonomy. However, Turkey deems the SDF a terrorist organization due to its ties to the YPG (People’s Protection Units), which forms the backbone of the SDF, and its affiliation with the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party), a group responsible for decades of insurgency within Turkey. This designation, combined with Turkish hostility and the power vacuum left by ISIS, limited the SDF’s ability to challenge Assad directly.

Part Three: The Withering

Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria decisively shifted the conflict in Assad’s favor. Framed as counterterrorism, it primarily targeted opposition forces like the Free Syrian Army (FSA) rather than ISIS. Deploying advanced jets, artillery, and personnel, Russia’s focus on opposition strongholds like Idlib escalated violence and ensured Assad’s survival. This intervention deepened Assad’s alliances and sidelined opposition forces.

Turkey emerged as a key supporter of the opposition, backing Idlib-based resistance to counter Assad’s forces and protect Turkish interests, including managing refugees and combating Kurdish groups. Operations like “Spring Shield” in 2020 demonstrated Turkish resolve but were undermined by clashes with Russian-backed forces, such as the February 2020 airstrikes that killed 34 Turkish soldiers. Fragmented Turkey-backed militias, operating with conflicting agendas, further complicated Ankara’s efforts.

A lack of broader international support critically weakened the opposition. As global priorities shifted and NATO remained disengaged, Turkey and the opposition became increasingly isolated. Forced into uneasy cooperation with Russia, Turkey’s ability to counter Assad diminished. Supported by Russia and Iran, Assad reclaimed most of Syria, reducing the opposition to scattered factions confined to the North and Northeast.

The Last Fading Petals: Assad’s Final Days

In the war’s aftermath, Assad had consolidated power domestically and achieved key diplomatic victories. The Arab League reinstated Syria in 2023, and nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE reopened embassies, prioritizing regional stability over isolating Assad. These developments, spurred by crises like the February 2023 earthquake, bolstered Assad’s legitimacy.

A unified force was needed to challenge the regime, but the opposition remained fragmented and weakened. The SDF controlled resource-rich Northern areas but faced internal divisions and Turkish aggression. Turkey’s operations, like “Claw Sword,” and Arab tribal dissent hindered the SDF’s effectiveness. Meanwhile, Idlib’s opposition was dominated by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate governing through the Syrian Salvation Government. Although Turkey has been financially supporting and training Syrian rebels since the Civil War and has never directly opposed HTS, the group remains isolated, relying on international aid while combating Assad’s forces, internal factionalism, and challenges to its authority.

Both the SDF and HTS were thought to have lacked the resources, unity and international backing to meaningfully challenge Assad. Russian and Iranian alliances, coupled with normalization efforts by Arab states, had marginalized the opposition and entrenched Assad’s power.

Conclusion: Hope Among the Ruins

Damascus, December 12, 2024: After years of brutal conflict, Syrian rebels have succeeded in overthrowing Bashar al-Assad’s regime, marking a seismic shift in the nation’s modern history. The coalition behind this victory is a diverse mix of factions, from remnants of the Free Syrian Army to Islamist groups and newly formed militias. United only by their shared opposition to Assad’s decades-long rule, they overcame deep divisions to wage a relentless campaign, bolstered by support from regional powers. Despite their triumph, the future of Syria under their governance remains uncertain, since the coalition’s ideological diversity and competing priorities pose challenges to achieving a stable, unified leadership. Moving forward, the international community will likely focus on how these groups navigate governance, rebuild the nation and address pressing issues like reconciliation, security and economic recovery. The world will be watching closely as Syria begins the daunting task of rebuilding, reconciling and forging a new political future.