The Future of Air Warfare: Sixth-Generation Aircraft & the Race for China, Europe & the U.S.

During a high-profile announcement on March 21 in the Oval Office, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that Boeing had been officially selected to develop the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance fighter aircraft. According to Pentagon officials, the F-47 will have stealth and penetration capabilities far exceeding those of the current U.S. fleet, a crucial step in preparations for a potential conflict with China. The F-47 is a nod both to its WWII predecessor and the current president, who is believed to have saved the program for Boeing, and is also symbolic of America’s dedication to air superiority post-WWII. Trump described the aircraft as “the most lethal aircraft ever designed,” though critics note China’s rapid advancements in Sixth-generation fighter technology as a counterbalance to supposed American dominance.

For Aviation enthusiasts, the term “Sixth-generation Aircraft” will be familiar. For the uninitiated majority, it refers to the next major leap in jet aircraft technology and the next iteration of a post-WWII classification. The F-47 supposedly usurps the U.S. F-22 and F-35, previously perceived as hegemons in modern air power, as improved radar systems and advanced air defense technologies begin to challenge the heavyweights of the fifth generation. Since the late 2010s, the U.S., China, the UK, Italy, Japan, and Russia—among others—have launched Sixth-generation fighter programs. Despite their promise, doubts persist over these jets' battlefield viability.

China  

Concurrently with the U.S.’ NGAD developments, China has been advancing its own sixth-generation fighter programs. In December 2024, China flew its first next-generation fighter prototype, the J-36. Known as the Baidi, the J-36 was developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Industry group and was observed conducting test flights on December 26th (interestingly coinciding with the birthday of the infamous Chinese Chairman Mao Zedong); it features a tailless delta wing design. China’s second, Sixth-generation fighter, the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation’s J-50, was spotted undergoing flight testing similarly in December 2025, in footage shared by a Douyin user. These aircraft are part of China's Nantianmen Project, which aims to integrate space-air capabilities and incorporate advanced technologies such as stealth aircraft and laser weaponry.​ China’s military modernization efforts have been substantial, with defense spending increasing from approximately USD $115 billion in 2010 to USD $246 billion in 2025. This investment reflects China’s strategic objectives, primarily the reunification with Taiwan through military means, a scenario that China expects would involve direct confrontation with U.S. forces, a fight with advanced U.S. aircraft, primarily the F-35, F-22 & B-21.

While the exact capabilities of the J-36 and J-50 remain classified, their introduction signals a significant shift in the balance of air power. The USAF leadership believes the J-36 is an air superiority fighter, while analysts from institutions like the Australian Strategic Policy and Royal United Services Institute suggest that both of these aircraft could serve as platforms for long-range missiles, electronic warfare and as command hubs for coordinated operations of both manned and unmanned systems. However, questions persist regarding their performance in high-intensity conflict scenarios, such as a contested Taiwan Strait, where stealth, offensive capabilities and maneuverability against sophisticated air defenses and aircraft would be critical. Regardless of its role or abilities, the emergence of these aircraft has prompted U.S. military leaders, such as General Kenneth Wilsbach of the Air Combat Command, to advocate for the continued development of the NGAD program to counterbalance these advancements.​ In summary, the advancements in Chinese sixth-generation fighter programs underscore a new era in aerial combat, characterized by rapid technological innovation and possible competition and catch-up for the U.S., Europe and the rest of the world. 

The United States

The United States has embarked on the development of several Sixth-generation aircraft, ranging from strategic bombers to air superiority fighters. Since the 2020s, the U.S. has increasingly pivoted towards combating China’s growing military influence in the Indo-Pacific. In response to Chinese technological advances, programs like NGAD and the B-21 Raider have been developed under strict secrecy since 2020 and 2011, respectively. 

The Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider represents a key asset in the USAF’s future strategic bomber fleet. Although conceptualized over a decade ago, the B-21 only made its maiden flight in November 2023 during a high-profile unveiling. The B-21, developed under the Long Range Strike Bomber program, is built to deliver precision strikes over long distances, especially in the Indo-Pacific region. With a radar cross section smaller than an insect to enemy radars, and with an unrefueled range exceeding 4,000 kilometers, American officials intend to use the aircraft to penetrate deep into heavily defended airspace to target key Chinese assets-ranging from command centers to critical infrastructure and nuclear facilities dotted around China. The aircraft is slated to enter operational service by 2027. 

However, analysts and critics argue that the U.S. may be displeased by reality. Critics, including Dr. Mel Deaile, a former USAF Colonel and Director of the School of Advanced Nuclear Deterrence Studies, warned that by the time the B-21 is fully operational, it may already be obsolete, facing significant threats from rapidly advancing Chinese anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. In December 2023, Asia Times reported that China had conducted simulated engagements to intercept and destroy B-21 aircraft, using a combination of new stealth aircraft, advanced radar systems and hypersonic missiles. While the validity of such reports is debatable, given the opacity of Chinese military disclosures, it has prompted U.S. defense planners to reassess the long-term viability of the B-21 and, more generally, strategic bombers in high-threat environments. Some analysts now question whether the 21st century could mark the end of manned Strategic Bombers.

In contrast, the F-47 is projected to be a true leap forward in aerial combat and ‘superior’ to any Chinese Sixth Generation aircraft. Although many technical details remain classified, the F-47 is expected to have a "significantly longer range, more advanced stealth, be more sustainable, supportable, and have higher availability than our fifth-generation fighters.” It is believed to be able to operate alongside autonomous drone swarms and, in future versions, to be unmanned. The aircraft will likely achieve speeds around Mach 2 and is expected to be cheaper, and aims to resolve the maintenance burdens associated with current fifth-generation fighters like the F-22 and F-35. The F-47 could also be configured with larger fuel tanks, enabling longer-range missions, potentially significant in a large-scale air war with China, where distance and logistical endurance will be decisive. 

Despite its promise, uncertainty lingers over the aircraft’s battlefield performance due to its projected full-service entry in 2029. With China rapidly progressing in anti-stealth and air defense technologies, there are concerns about whether even the most advanced U.S. fighter can retain air dominance. Still, American officials remain confident. General David Allvin, Chief of Staff of the Air Force, remarked, “We’re going to write the next generation of modern aerial warfare with this (F-47).” That said, historical precedent suggests the F-47, like many U.S. aircraft before, may debut with operational issues but also with considerable technological advantages shaping air combat for decades.

Europe 

In the current global defense landscape, Europe continues to trail behind its competitors, particularly the U.S. and China, in developing next-generation air combat systems. Europe’s most ambitious effort to leap ahead is the Tempest, a Sixth-generation fighter aircraft under development by the UK-led Team Tempest. This team comprises major industry players such as BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, Leonardo UK, and MBDA. The project forms the centerpiece of the Global Combat Air Programme—a trilateral partnership between the UK, Italy and Japan. The aircraft is designed to replace the Eurofighter Typhoon and is expected to enter service by 2035. Technologically, the Tempest is envisioned as a leap forward. It will incorporate AI and deep learning, the capability to operate swarming drone technology, hypersonic capabilities, directed energy weapons and modular design allowing for mission-specific customization. The UK government has allocated £2 billion for the Tempest program, with the first flights expected by 2027.

However, consistent with historical patterns in British defense procurement, there are already worries about the program. The Commons Defence Committee warned that, “All too often, multilateral defence programmes are beset with soaring costs and mounting delays. Tempest must break the mould.” Meanwhile, potential partners such as Australia and Saudi Arabia have expressed interest in joining the program. Elsewhere in Europe, another Sixth-generation project is underway: the Future Combat Air Systems, led by France, Germany and Spain. At the heart of the project is the Next Generation Fighter. It is designed to operate alongside drones, known as “remote effector,” which will carry out missions such as electronic warfare, missile delivery and target designation. This aligns with Europe’s concept of network-centric warfare, integrating the aircraft with satellites, naval ships and AWACS platforms to create a shared real-time environment. A demonstrator flight for the NGF is anticipated around 2027, with full operational capability planned for 2040. 

However, progress has been marred by delays and internal disagreements. The key dispute lies between Dassault Aviation, the French contractor, and Airbus, representing German and Spanish interests. At times, industrial competition and national pride have slowed technical cooperation and jeopardized timelines. There are greater concerns about the aircraft’s strategic viability by the time of its deployment in the 2030s. Due to the development of Russian advanced air defenses like the S-500, and the rapid development of Sixth-generation aircraft by China, questions therefore linger over whether these European aircraft can outmatch global rivals. Moreover, geopolitical shifts, including America's shifting foreign policy priorities and its announcement that any export version of the F-47 will be significantly downgraded, have driven home the message that Europe must achieve strategic autonomy, particularly in air power.  

Ultimately, the future of air warfare will be far more complex than in previous generations. In the evolving landscape of military development, having the fastest, stealthiest, or most heavily armed aircraft is no longer the singular advantage it once was. Sixth-generation aircraft are not just standalone weapons platforms; they are components of a broader, integrated multi-domain warfare strategy. These jets are designed to operate in concert with naval forces, ground components, drone swarms and AI, forming part of a larger network defining the modern battlefield. 

Just as the early 20th century saw an arms race over battleships, today’s world is entering a new era of aerial arms competition, where superiority is not only measured by performance but also by how well systems communicate, adapt and dominate. Ultimately, the effectiveness of these next-generation systems will not be fully known until they are tested—not in simulations, but in war.

Photo source: US Air Force on Flickr