Saudi Arabia and Iran Restore Diplomatic Relations

On March 10, Saudi Arabia and Iran stunned the international community by announcing that their diplomatic relations would be fully restored, following several days of secret talks in Beijing. Several days later, the Saudi government invited Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to soon visit the kingdom and meet with top diplomats for reconciliation efforts. With tumultuous ties dating back decades, the reconciliation between these two regional powers could signify a shifting dynamic in the Middle East and potentially end the proxy conflict between countries that has played out in Yemen, Syria and Lebanon. 

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have gradually deteriorated since the 1979 Iranian Revolution and have experienced periods of complete suspension and hesitant reconciliation. Iran has accused Saudi Arabia on multiple occasions of championing American interests in the region rather than representing Islam. Both countries have competed for regional dominance while pursuing wildly different foreign policy strategies. 

From 1987 to 1990, diplomatic ties froze after the “Mecca incident,” during which Shia pilgrims in Mecca clashed with Saudi security forces, causing riots that killed over 400 people. After the tragedy, Saudi Arabia and Iran disputed who the responsible party was, and Iran took four Saudi citizens hostage from the Saudi Embassy in Tehran. Diplomatic relations were suspended for almost four years, and Iranian citizens were prohibited from going on the Hajj pilgrimage until 1991.

After two decades of stable ties, the Saudi-Iranian relationship experienced a turning point in 2011, with the advent of the Syrian Civil War and foiled Iranian assassination plot, in which the Iranian government allegedly planned to assassinate Saudi ambassador Adel al-Jubeir in the United States. After years of waning relations, Saudi Arabia and Iran once again cut off all diplomatic ties in 2016 after Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr was executed in Saudi Arabia and the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was subsequently ransacked. 

In recent years, rapprochement between the two countries may have seemed like an unlikely prospect – Saudi Arabia has joined forces with Western powers to oppose Iran’s highly contested nuclear program and has strengthened unofficial ties with Israel, particularly regarding intelligence to counter Iran. At the same time, Iran has bolstered support for the Assad regime and the Houthi rebels in Yemen, both prominent Saudi enemies. These renewed ties could potentially shake up the regional power balance, especially regarding the Saudi-Iran proxy conflict, relations with Israel and China’s mediatory role. 

This normalization raises questions regarding the civil war in Yemen — since 2014, ongoing fighting between the Houthi rebels and the former government of Mansour Hadi has created a nearly ceaseless war and a severe humanitarian crisis with the involvement of several international proxies. Both groups claim to constitute the legitimate leadership of Yemen; the Houthis receive financial and military support from Iran, while the Hadi faction is backed by a Saudi-led coalition bolstered by the United States and the United Arab Emirates. A United Nations-backed ceasefire agreement in 2022 brought several months of relative calm and an improved humanitarian landscape to Yemen. Still, it ended in October 2022 after both parties disagreed on renewal terms. Shortly after Saudi Arabia and Iran announced their renewed ties, Saudi and Omani delegations began peace negotiations in Sana’a on April 10, sparking hope for de-escalation.

Additionally, the dynamics of the Saudi-Iran relationship have played out in the Syrian Civil War since 2011. Tehran provides military support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and many militants affiliated with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are in the country. Saudi allies like the United States have backed Syrian rebel groups like the Syrian Democratic Forces and Kurdish militias in northern Syria. 

Furthermore, news of this rapprochement caused alarm in Israel, which has experienced slightly thawed ties with Saudi Arabia recently as both nations collaborate to counter Iran’s regional power and nuclear ambitions. The United States and Israel have identified Saudi Arabia’s entry into the Abraham Accords as a strategic goal for the near future, an extraordinarily unlikely step if Saudi Arabia and Iran fully reconcile. Since the news of this rapprochement, the prospects of this appear increasingly improbable. In late April, Saudi Arabia is expected to receive a delegation of Hamas officials for the first time in nearly a decade. Hamas, a militant Israeli adversary group and governing party of the Gaza Strip, has long been a recipient of military and financial aid from Iran, although relations soured around 2015 due to Hamas’ support for rebels in the Syrian Civil War. 

Many have attributed Saudi Arabia and Iran’s tense relations to their sectarian division – Wahhabist Sunnis govern Saudi Arabia while Iran is majority Shia. While Sunnis and Shias commonly lived side by side throughout history, Shias have faced oppression by Sunni majorities, and Sunni leadership has often portrayed Shias as heretical. The effects of Saudi Arabia and Iran’s religious disunion are exemplified among the strategic alliances of the region – majority Sunni nations like Egypt and the UAE align with Saudi Arabia. At the same time, countries with large Shia populations like Iraq and parts of Lebanon and Syria lean toward Iran. But to what extent have religious doctrines fueled Saudi Arabia and Iran’s regional rivalry?

According to analysts like Dr. Najat Al-Saied of the Middle East Institute, the real explanation for Saudi Arabia and Iran’s lasting feud is far more complicated. Al-Saied contrasts the Iranian regime's theocratic, revolutionary structure with Saudi Arabia’s hybrid monarchy, which aims to be a player in the international system, aligning with major powers like the United States, rather than to initiate a revolution. Additionally, Saudi Arabia aims to shed its sectarian image through its Saudi Vision 2030 framework, which outlines a plan to modernize the Saudi economy and improve the public sector. While Iran leans into the sectarian Shia identity to pursue its aims and reject Western influence, Saudi Arabia is prioritizing Saudi nationalism over specifically Sunni dominion. Iran’s criticism of Saudi Arabia’s guardianship of Mecca and Medina is not an example of Sunni-Shia tensions but rather a “revolutionary message” from Iran to inspire resistance against the House of Saud. 

Finally, this diplomacy represents a major step for China after several years of steadily increasing its political and economic role in the region. China has many strategic objectives in the Middle East, from securing energy resources to countering global US influence. China has become the largest economic investor in the Middle East since the 2011 Arab Spring. Numerous clean energy agreements have been signed between Beijing and Middle Eastern governments, and bilateral trade between China and the Middle East totals $245 billion. However, this development marks a consequential shift in China’s role from an economic powerhouse to a diplomatic broker – a role historically occupied by the United States. 

This rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran could be significant and far-reaching. China may take on a larger role as a Middle Eastern mediator, peace prospects may improve for long-standing conflicts and regional power dynamics may shift in the complicated proxy dynamic between the two countries. However, some observers remain skeptical that this relational shift is anything more than symbolic. Despite peace talks, Houthi forces in Yemen continue to launch offenses against the Saudi-led coalition in the Marib province. Additionally, Lebanon's political and economic crisis and the threat Israel faces from a nuclear Iran will require much more than revived Saudi-Iranian relations to overcome.