Victoria Krumova
September
Our world is political. By virtue of our need to constantly showcase our individuality and unique way of thinking, we often stand strong in our beliefs. We debate topics like abortion, war, mental health and, basically, all that we can think about. We also debate climate change. And while some highlight that it has come as a result of human activity, others passionately argue that the influx of temperatures is solely a natural phenomena explained by the cyclic nature of the temperatures on our planet. One, however, has to pose a begging question that arises: does it really matter what causes climate change, when we see it is a fact and it is starting to kill our own? Because, at the end of the day, if we have the means to stop it, slow it down, or postpone it, shouldn't we all be united by the goal of self-preservation and the chance for prosperity for future generations?
Surely, for the average UK resident, climate change is not going to radically alter their day-to-day life experiences. It might be two degrees hotter on a random Thursday afternoon, but that, for most people, is as far as the impact will go. The country having millions upon millions of pounds in its bank reserves, being relatively self-sufficient and being isolated from other countries means that it is unlikely to face consequences such as inability to invest in adaptation means, lack of goods it had previously been supplying itself with from other countries, or massive waves of migrants in a theoretical critical peak of climate change.
But what about Tuvalu, a country expected to sink in under 100 years with the current rate of the rising of ocean levels? The country is the first ever to announce it is “going digital” and is being brought to the metaverse to preserve its customs and traditions. And, as heartbreaking as it is to say, this dystopia is our reality.
Cities like Cairo and Alexandria are also at risk of sinking; coastal areas will be the first ones hit by tornados and there will be mass migration of millions of people to a limited number of cities with the most resources. There will be less agricultural land that is supposed to feed the same number of people, there will be overcrowding on the job market and housing options will be insufficient compared to the demand.
And yet, these are the “expected” outcomes of climate change. They are the impacts the people of the future will have to deal with. No matter directly or indirectly affected by the crisis, all countries will suffer, regardless of the extent. But how does the situation look today, and more interestingly, what are the unexpected ways in which climate change shapes our reality?
When thinking about global warming, one rarely associates it with terrorism. Nevertheless, when looking at the aims of terrorist organizations and the potential power and influence that climate change predisposes them to have in certain regions of the world, we understand both the disparity of the situation and the urgent need for it to change.
So what are those terrorist groups doing? Where are they acting? And most importantly, what does climate change have to do with all of this?
To be able to analyze these questions, we firstly need to look at where these organizations are prevalent. ISIS and al-Qaeda have been extremely active in West Africa—Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger. The answer to why, however, is far more complex. On the one hand, there is the issue of weak governments that do not have a strong military, by virtue of Africa’s lack of great wars in its history. This, in recent years, has meant that terrorist organizations could install themselves on the territories of those countries, without necessarily having a hard time doing so. Weak governments have also proven to be inadequate in dealing with local conflicts. These conflicts, often based on religious or ethnic divide, lead to the necessity of social services and the need for protection. Jihadist organizations then offer that protection to the people, thus spreading their ideology and influence.
The U.N. and France have tried to battle this. In 2013 the U.N. sent a peacekeeping force in Mali, after the occupation of its northern parts by Islamist fighters. France too involved itself, by sending 5,000 soldiers, in an effort to stabilize the situation. However, the insurgency of violence in the region, despite the presence of said external powers, is an undeniable fact. Not only did deaths from armed violence in Mali increase by more than three times from 2015 to 2019, but the U.N. also lost more than 300 soldiers, making this what some have called the “deadliest peacekeeping mission in the world”. It remains uncertain whether the failure of this mission has occurred as a result of the soldiers not being ordered to launch active offensives against the militants, or because of the alleged interference of the Malian government with the operations that were being carried out. Nevertheless, both the U.N. and France decided to withdraw their forces in 2023 and 2022 respectively, with the latter doing so in response to the alienating shifting alliances the junta made with Russia and the growing anti-French sentiment among the local population.
Climate change is making battling with the rebel groups and the terrorists even harder. As 70 percent of the population of West Africa is reliant on agricultural activities and livestock to make their living, even the slightest change in weather can mean famine, poverty and death.
Thus, a certain demographic has chosen an alternative path for going through life: young men. More and more of them have been resorting to militancy, and by doing so, they have been making the situation for the civilians even more dire. The number of civilian fatalities in Mali has more than doubled in the span of just two years—from 2020 to 2022. In Burkina Faso, 223 people, 56 among whom were children, were massacred on Feb. 25 this year in the villages of Nondin and Soro. In a statement, Human Rights Watch Executive Director Tirana Hassan condemned the attack saying that "the massacres in Nondin and Soro villages are just the latest mass killings of civilians by the Burkina Faso military in their counterinsurgency operations.” She also expressed the need for international assistance to support an investigation into crimes against humanity. But with France and the U.N. already having only a bitter taste of failure from their last mission in Mali, Russia and China having criticized said mission and the UK and Sweden refusing to send troops, it may be said that the international community is intentionally choosing to avoid involving itself further in West Africa’s struggles. A lot of questions remain unanswered: what about the civilians that are forced into radical ideologies because of desperation; what about the kids that are being killed by rebel groups; what about the young men that seek a more stable future in the groups responsible for the unstable status quo? And with the droughts that leave those people without a land to live off of, how much worse will the situation become?
With no peacekeeping missions currently present on the terrain, terrorists are continuing to wreak havoc in West Africa. Just recently, on Sept, 5 a jihadist group carried out an attack on civilians in Barsalogho. As of most recent claims, this group was Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has links to al-Qaeda. Because of their presence in the northern parts of the country, almost 90,000 migrants, most of them Christian, have sought refuge in the town of Barsalogho, hoping to escape the jihadist violence. However, this attack has proved that no place is safe when there is nobody to stop the advance of the jihadists into new territories. According to reports, between 200 and 400 people were killed in the attack. Moreso, the massacre took place while the civilians were digging defensive ditches to protect themselves from situations exactly like the one that followed. According to eyewitnesses, corpses were found lying near the shovels they had been using to dig.
But Burkina Faso has been experiencing turmoil since long before Sept. 5. As stated in reports from May 2023, two million people have been displaced internally—the majority of whom are women and children. According to statistics cited by the Los Angeles Times, “one out of four people requires aid and tens of thousands are facing catastrophic levels of hunger.”
Bringing this back to climate change and the need for water and fruitful agricultural lands, there is a silver lining. Despite the droughts that the region has been facing, international organizations have been present on the ground in countries such as Burkina Faso. Oxfam International has invested resources into spreading information to the local families on adapting to the new weather conditions, preparing nutritious meals from the food they have access to and have also trained people on proper hygiene in regards to both cooking and water consumption. Workshops on preventing malnutrition have been carried out in the village of Tafgo, water towers have been installed in other communities and crops that require less water to sprout have been found.
However, this is not a viable long-term solution to the impending need for food. A local— Noaga Ouèda—shared with Oxfam International: "As there has been less rain than in previous years, we are suffering a lot. Before this, we didn't know hunger, but now we are forced to ration the to [flour] so that we can give it to our children." Therefore, the issue still remains, regardless of the efforts put in and the progress made. No matter our efforts to find crops that require less water to sprout, they require water nonetheless.
So the question begs: How many more people will go to sleep hungry tomorrow compared to today and how many more will need to fall asleep under the sounds of yet another jihadist rebel group’s firearms rummaging through their city?