Turkish Opposition at a Crossroads with Leadership Race Looming

Turkey’s main opposition party is facing a post-election reckoning in the run-up to a leadership race that could radically alter the course of Turkish politics. The upcoming 38th regular congress of the Republican People’s Party will see incumbent Chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu defend his position against a gamut of fresh faces, all of whom have pledged to reform the party in the hopes of ending a string of losses spanning 13 years and 10 election cycles.

The Kılıçdaroğlu-led opposition bloc found itself plunged into turmoil after a humiliating defeat in the second round of the presidential elections in May. Their loss came at a time when any other party but President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party would have collapsed: the country faced a disastrous economic crisis and the widely-publicized mishandling of a catastrophic earthquake. This was expected to turn voters away from Erdoğan and into the arms of the opposition coalition. Yet, the incumbent strongman walked away with an uncontestable victory, guaranteeing a further five years in power. 

This defeat was unlike any other in that it signaled a true turning point in the political discourse surrounding the opposition, chiefly because the aforementioned state of the ruling party had led to rhetoric from the opposition, which, in hindsight, can only be described as irresponsibly optimistic. Buoyed by the 2019 local elections, which saw a majority of the big cities in Turkey fall under opposition leadership and the political baptism-by-fire of current party heavyweights Ekrem İmamoğlu and Manur Yavaş, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, respectively, the opposition hoped to make use of the revitalized passions of voters to oust Erdoğan definitively. Their hopes were dashed, however, by an unfocused campaign marred by internal and external criticism that left Kılıçdaroğlu on the back foot more often than not. The poor communication and mismanagement of expectations observed during the campaign persisted into both election nights, with voters relying on periodic announcements from the ever-popular İmamoğlu and Yavaş, who often contradicted themselves from one statement to another. This culminated in an acceptance of defeat at the eleventh hour, a demoralizing statement from an opposition that had been assuring its voters that it was winning – contrary to all available data – until the very last minute. Voters were, of course, angry, but with Erdoğan back on his throne, there was only one place for this anger to go. And so, all eyes turned to Kılıçdaroğlu.

A quiet man in his seventies, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is known affectionately among his young supporters as “Grandpa Kemal,” owing to his gray hair, old-fashioned wire glasses, and gentle demeanor. He has been head of the main opposition for 13 years, having taken advantage of a sex tape scandal involving the previous chairman to crystallize scattered support within his party into a successful bid for leadership. He has enjoyed a serene tenure, with only two somewhat serious challenges against his leadership. This placidity means he fades into the background next to the charismatic and colorful Erdoğan and also fades from the minds of voters who in Turkey are attracted to nothing more than a good bit of theater from their politicians. Seen as lacking in charisma since the beginning of his tenure, a compounding string of election losses has done nothing for his popularity or credibility. His last-minute announcement as the coalition candidate for the presidential elections brought about a wave of incredulity among the public, with theories abounding that the delayed announcement was designed to temper potential reactions. Popular figures within the party, such as İmamoğlu and Yavaş, were sidelined, ostensibly after intense negotiation with coalition partners and on semi-valid grounds. İmamoğlu’s pending trial could have seen him being banned from politics and thus out of the race during the campaign's peak, while Yavaş’s nationalist past was seen as a risk that did not measure up against the potential support from Kurdish voters. Kılıçdaroğlu’s selection as the candidate up against Erdoğan precipitated a significant shift in the rhetoric surrounding the election, which opposition officials now tried to transform into a sort of referendum: Turkey is either with Erdoğan or against him. Kılıçdaroğlu was no longer a candidate but a figurehead for the idea of a post-Erdoğan Turkey. Public favor was hard-won, however, and Kılıçdaroğlu consistently occupied last place in election polls, often lagging behind İmamoğlu by over ten percentage points.  This provoked much debate about Kılıçdaroğlu’s suitability as a candidate and the legitimacy of his ambition.

These enduring tensions within the opposition coalition boiled over shortly before the first round, as the leader of the nationalist İyi Party announced that she could not accept Kılıçdaroğlu as a coalition candidate. She accused Kılıçdaroğlu of ‘koltuk sevdası’, literally meaning ‘being in love with his seat’ and announced her support for the two mayors as candidates. After a veritable media circus, which included multiple highly-publicized official visits to both party headquarters on the leaders’ part, the İyi Party was eventually brought back into the fold. However, the whole episode further showcased the clashes within the seemingly unified opposition. Kılıçdaroğlu came out of the situation with some goodwill, owed to his delicate touch in handling opposing forces within his coalition. This goodwill would evaporate into nothingness in the eventual aftermath of the elections, which in the nation's eyes, proved decisively that Kılıçdaroğlu was not the right man. His post-election behavior further sank his image, as his response to his 11th consecutive failure was to unequivocally reject the notion that he would resign, replace his executive board, and post nothing but tweets congratulating various and sundry on their victories in sports and so on.

It now seems that Kılıçdaroğlu must finally face the consequences of 13 years of perceived failures. The party apparatus that exists outside of his own close circle has sprung into action–headlines were made in July when a meeting led by İmamoğlu, whose candidacy for the İstanbul election was supported exclusively by Kılıçdaroğlu, and attended by party higher-ups, was leaked on Youtube. The topic was how to force an extraordinary congress to oust Kılıçdaroğlu. While ineffective, these plans represent the internal political situation: ambitious upstarts have sensed blood in the water and are more than prepared to bite. 

In the aftermath of this small-scale crisis, İmamoğlu and Yavaş have, somehow, been convinced to stand down: their position in the big cities is perhaps more strategically important than a position as chairman. For now, the only significant candidate in a field of more than six is longtime member of parliament and parliamentary deputy group leader Özgür Özel. Known to be charismatic and with a gift for public speaking, he was firmly entrenched in Kılıçdaroğlu’s camp until just a few weeks ago, when he announced his candidacy and declared that his party had to change “from tip to toe.” Since then, he has soundly criticized the handling of the election and the aftermath by top party brass, though most campaigning seems to have taken place internally. 

Internal sources indicate that two separate factions, one which supports Kılıçdaroğlu and another fittingly named ‘the changemakers’, have formed. Their existence was made clear at the Istanbul provincial ordinary congress, which took place on Oct. 8 and saw a candidate supported by party headquarters run against one of aforementioned “changemakers.” It has been widely interpreted as a kind of trial run of the actual congress to take place in November.  Local media reported a tense atmosphere, with intermittent interruptions to speeches for chanting both in favor of and against Kılıçdaroğlu. The congress also saw violent brawls and the eventual walkout of mayor İmamoğlu in protest of incitative statements in some speeches. Even so, the congress ended favorably for the changemakers with a solid victory for their candidate. Party officials told media that the conception of Kılıçdaroğlu and his entourage as an unshakeable entity at the head of the party had been destroyed and that they expected those still on the fence to now join their faction in the voting, which they hoped would end Kılıçdaroğlu’s reign.

If Kılıçdaroğlu does lose his grip on power, it will be difficult to interpret this shift as anything but a net positive. He has long been smeared for the gentle nature that he carries into every part of his work, but now he has run out of even the scant sympathy this image afforded him. Those who have taken off their election-tinted goggles now see him as unforgivably mediocre rather than carefully moderate and worst of all, power-hungry and even dictatorial. Turkey’s political culture, or what has become of it in the past 20 years under Erdoğan’s rule, has contaminated even the opposition of the country: Kılıçdaroğlu and his retinue hold, as of now, unprecedented and uninterrupted power over the party whilst believing that elections are insufficient to bring them to account. Erdoğan too has grown habituated to a passive opposition led by his longtime rival, who he is aware that he outperforms. Kılıçdaroğlu’s legacy of continued failure is a chain around the neck of the opposition, for which this may be the last chance to reposition itself as a formidable bulwark against the rise of a one-party state. The future of Turkish politics hinges on the choices made in the upcoming leadership race, and only time will reveal the path that lies ahead.