Eulogy to Joy

In March 2025, the Atlantic’s editor-in-chief, Jeffrey Goldberg, revealed to the world that American national-security officers discussed highly classified information in a group chat in which he was accidentally included. While American media focused on whether the leak risked American lives, European leaders got the chance to see how America’s most powerful talked about Europe behind closed doors. 

Vice-president JD Vance, texted on the group chat “I just hate bailing Europe out again.” when discussing the potential strike on Houthi forces. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defense, for his part called “European free-loading” “PATHETIC”. 

Across the Atlantic, it was not news that Trump held Europe in low regard. It was however news how gleefully the Administration talked about the continent behind closed doors. In an interview with Politico in September 2025, Trump called the European countries a “decaying” group of nations with “weak” leaders. He bluntly declared that Europe is clueless in the face of global turmoil, saying that “Europe doesn’t know what to do.” The White House’s new National Security Strategy (NSS), published in November 2025, went further, saying that Europe is in a “civilizational erasure” because of uncontrolled migration, limits on free speech and its regulations undermining creativity. Luuk van Middelaar, writing for Le Monde, said that America has started “ideological assault” against Europe with the NSS. 

For their part, European leaders refuted this characterization of a dormant Europe. Emmanuel Macron wrapped himself in Gaullism, championing French independence from American influence. On March 2nd the French président jupitérien declared at Ile Longue, home of the French naval nuclear arsenal, that he wants “Europeans to regain control of their own destiny,” acknowledging the fact that Europe has grown too dependent on the United States. Earlier in 2025, Macron had said that Trump was the “electroshock” Europe needed to awake from its 30-year-long self-induced sleep of “strategic dependence.” While Macron took Trump’s comments as a wake-up call, other leaders across Europe went on to deny Trump’s claims. Kaja Kallas, the European High Representative for Foreign Affairs, said that “ ‘Woke Europe’ [is] not facing civilisational erasure”; Ursula von der Leyen and Friedrich Merz joined her in highlighting Europe’s importance for the United States.

Donald Trump’s view on Europe is not completely wrong. Europe perhaps is not facing “civilizational decline” or is “PATHETIC,” but its role in the global order is fading and its economies are facing an incredible test in the coming years. Europe, accustomed to its long dinners paired with specialty wine, is too focused on the plate to see what lies ahead. 

The European economic system for too long relied on three simple postulates: cheap exports to China, cheap energy from Russia and cheap security from the United States.

First, China became competitive both internally and internationally with European companies. German automakers, the engine that turned Germany into Europe’s largest economy, benefitted from exports to countries such as China, Japan and Russia. However, China’s rapid rise in the automobile industry starting from the early 2010s put German automakers who could not compete with the low prices in a hard position. Companies like BMW, symbols of German economic success, began to scale back local production, contributing to higher rates of unemployment in the country. Germany’s trade surplus began to erode and the German automobile industry began to rely on high tariffs on Chinese imports to stay competitive within the European market. Across Europe, the fate of the German automobile is too common; the European trade deficit with China, between 2015 and 2024, quadrupled in volume.  

Second, the Russian pipelines that carried the cheap energy fueling European growth closed with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor between 2005 and 2021, spent the better part of her career ensuring the flow of cheap Russian gas into Germany and Europe. She championed the building of the Nord Stream pipeline even during the invasion of Crimea while critics warned that she would make Germany, and Europe, dependent on Russian gas. In the end, Merkel was successful, she schafft das and cheap Russian gas resulted in more than ten years of consecutive growth for Europe’s largest economy. However, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, her decision to pursue closer ties with Russia has proven that Europe indeed grew too reliant on Russian gas. Now that the cheap gas that supplied Europe’s manufacturing sector is gone, Europe finds it even harder to develop and harder still to compete.  

The final blow to the European model came from Donald Trump, who, in his second term, decided to hold Europe more accountable for its own security. After his repeated demands for European NATO members to meet the alliance target of 2 percent GDP spent on defense, not only did European countries finally meet it, they also increased the alliance target to 5 percent by 2035. Previously European countries enjoyed spending less on defense to fund their extensive social nets, but now their social welfare systems are under more pressure than ever. However, America’s decoupling with Europe does not end with economic ramifications. Arguments over Greenland, Trump’s dealing with Putin without consulting the EU and support for Eurosceptics across the continent all signal that the relationship Europe enjoyed with the United States is coming to an end. JD Vance declared at the Munich Security Conference in 2025, as far as America is concerned: Europe’s largest threat is the “threat from within.”

The European dependency on these three pillars is the most visible symptom of a far deeper problem with the continent’s model of growth: There never was a Plan B. The AI boom made this apparent. China and the United States innovated as Europe grew complacent. Companies like America’s Anthropic and China’s DeepSeek promise to transform work and increase worker productivity to levels previously thought impossible. European leaders, too, recognize the strength of the AI boom in inspiring economic growth. Macron, in the Paris AI Summit, declared that now is the “time for innovation” to avoid getting left behind. However, despite speeches and promises of innovation, Europe still is woefully behind not only the United States, but also China in the AI race. American start-ups and Chinese tech giants are racing to innovate, whereas the European economy is still carried largely by legacy brands such as LVMH and Novo Nordisk. Isabel Schnabel, who is on the executive board of the European Central Bank (ECB), noted that the problem is not that Europe is incapable of innovation, but that there simply are too many regulatory measures limiting productivity growth within the bloc. Mario Draghi, in his well-known Draghi Report, highlighted this exact problem. There is a patchwork of regulatory systems, sometimes contradictory, within the EU, limiting the ability of businesses to compete with American or Chinese companies. As the EU hesitated to act on the Draghi Report, ECB President Christine Lagarde went on to state that Europe is in an “existential crisis” where “internal barriers are stifling innovation, productivity, and investment across the bloc”.

Europe’s lack of advancement in productivity put it on a path of economic stagnation at levels hardly seen in any other part of the developed world. Between 2008 and 2023, notes the Wall Street Journal, Europeans saw their real wages drop or stagnate, whereas Americans saw theirs increase. A common European refutation, one to which Paul Krugman too subscribes, is that Europeans simply live better lives than their counterparts across the Atlantic. Indeed, Europeans live for longer and are happier on average than Americans. Furthermore, they have more free time and social security. In this view, American higher wages and GDP mean little, because they hardly translate to economic welfare for American citizens. Krugman is not wrong. The European system did not have a fatal flaw. It simply was for a different world with a different economic order.

The collapse of the European system is further accelerated by demographic crisis.

Europe's social welfare and early retirement rest on the existence of many young people who can pay taxes and participate in economic life. Concurrently, the European Union’s old-age dependency ratio hit 37 percent in 2024, a record high, meaning that there are fewer than three working-age adults for each retired person. Meanwhile, the EU's low birth-rates mean that it has to rely on immigration in order to keep its economies working. However, increased immigration has led the far-right to take hold in various European states, limiting immigration when the continent is in dire need of a working population. The OECD’s Tax Policy Reforms 2025 report found that some countries in Europe are instead resorting to increasing taxes on young professionals. Increased tax burden, combined with Europe’s already complicated regulatory scheme, is driving young entrepreneurs away from Europe to places like the United States where business-friendly economic policies encourage innovation.

The Trump Administration’s rhetoric on Europe may be crude, and the European way of life may be more sophisticated. Still, the fact remains that the old European economic system which helped the continent create its welfare states is no longer there. To those of us who enjoy real bread and good wine: We need to ask whether those are valuable enough to sacrifice the security of Europe. 

Photo Source: Onno P., Flickr