How Many Lives Will Be Lost Before the Ethiopian Government and the Oromo Liberation Army Settle a Peace Agreement?

The conflicts in Ethiopia’s Oromiya region have been ongoing for decades, with several armed groups carrying out attacks towards the public and government authorities simultaneously. Only a few weeks ago, one of the more organised militia groups, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), sat down at the negotiation table with the Ethiopian government. The outcome was unfortunately as disappointing as many expected it to be. The OLA and Ethiopian government have not managed to reach a consensus, thus continuing to put thousands of civilians at risk every day. 

The OLA is an established militia – they have previously posed as the military wing of the once-banned political opposition group, the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). The OLF fought for self-determination for the Oromo people for decades until 2018, when they reached an agreement with the Ethiopian government to lay down arms and reintegrate. However, as these negotiations later broke down in 2019, the OLA also broke ties with the OLF and continued to conduct armed operations under their own leadership. From this point, the Ethiopian federal and regional forces started a counterinsurgency towards the OLA, resulting in serious human rights abuses from both parties.

Human Rights Watch has reported that the OLA has carried out killings of several government officials as well as attacked non-military government offices. However, the OLA does not contain their violence to the Ethiopian authorities but also targets the ethnic Amhara minority in the region. There have for decades been conflicts and disagreements in the region between the different ethnic groups living there, and the OLA has on several occasions specifically targeted the Amharan communities. Residents who survived the attacks by the OLA witnessed how the armed men surrounded entire villages and forced their inhabitants to gather in the town centre for mass executions. 

At the same time as the OLA carries out attacks on civilians, they are also having an armed conflict with the Ethiopian government in the Western parts of Oromiya. Though there are established government forces in the region, they usually take hours to respond to emergency calls from civilians being ambushed by the local militias. There have also been reports of arbitrary arrest and detention of Oromos, as well as summary executions by government authorities. The Ethiopian authorities have killed and injured hundreds of civilians over the last few years, using violence towards peaceful protestors and large gatherings of people which did not pose a security threat on several occasions. 

For example, this was the case as hundreds of people gathered to honor the killed Oromo singer, Hachalu, at his home in 2020. The gathered group did not carry weapons and did not behave violently, yet, the police and armed forces opened fire and shot several individuals. Thus, it is clear that the government authorities are also perpetrators of human rights abuses. 

In addition to the mentioned abuses, the Ethiopian security forces have instrumentalized the arrest of Oromos as a way of limiting the group's influence and their ability to exercise freedom of speech. Thousands of Oromos have over the last couple of years been arrested, and many are kept in prison for years without facing trial. The huge amount of arrests could seemingly also be a way of covering up the dozens of arrested opposition politicians. In addition, the Ethiopian government has failed tremendously in providing housing and support for the thousands of displaced people in the region, as many are fleeing more violent areas 

It is therefore clear that the civilians in the area are the ones suffering the most, as they are attacked both by militias such as the OLA and at times even government authorities. The thousands of people who have been killed so far do thus not make up too big of a cost for either party to yet consider a peace agreement. 

There are at the moment no further planned negotiations like the ones held in September, making the future unsure for the thousands of civilians living in limbo. At the moment, both parties refuse to acknowledge the other's demands and worries. The Ethiopian National Security Adviser, Redwan Hussein, said that the OLA currently had an obstructive approach and unrealistic demands after the September negotiations. In turn, the OLA accused the government of not dealing with the structural issues regarding the marginalisation of the Oromo people in Oromiya. Thus, the two parties are stuck in this stalemate until further ado, as something needs to change before any party would consider a different path. Organisations like the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), also called the East African Trade Block, have however made efforts to support future negotiations. At the moment there are no signs that their effort is paying off, as both parties continue to engage in violence, both towards each other and the already suffering Ethiopian population.