Anonymous
January
We all heard that the Assad regime toppled after 50 years of dictatorship. However, recent history taught us that such overthrows and their subsequent reforms are illusory in the end, seductive at first and inevitably and ultimately evanescent. Will this be the case for Syria? Will it repeat the history of its neighbors? And if not, will it become an Islamic republic, as the actual leaders seem to desire?
How Bashar Assad’s rule has been toppled with such ease has already been extensively covered. However, what I think has been partly neglected in the wake of pure joy that emerged from the removal of Bashar is the unseemingly Islamist orientation of the wave of rulers, with al-Golani as the president and Mohammed al-Bashir as the prime minister of the interim government. Of the two, the de facto leader of Syria is the first one mentioned, he being the star of all interviews and foreign diplomats. Indeed, anything is better than what the ex-regime has subjected its citizens to, a rule which can best be described through pictures (as shown in Caesar’s photos and Saidnaya) rather than words; words have a way of sterilizing emotions. That is why photos speak for themselves, without a need for a description. Exactly for this reason, specifically, the bar being so low, the new regime must be supervised continuously so as not to fall into the dark night of totalitarianism, as Syria's neighbors have done after the Arab Spring of 2011.
Although the leader of the regime, Shar`a or, more known through his nom de guerre, Al-Golani, has made drastic attempts to improve his image (as an ex-Al-Qaeda fighter), his recent actions and gestures cast a shadow on his willingness for concessions and reforms. His attire changed from a military uniform of the rebel fighter to a sharp, European suit. His discourse was altogether inclusive, with repeated mentions and support for religious tolerance and civil rights (though much less so on women’s rights). His post-coup attitude was cool-headed, pacifistic and reconciliatory, not seeking retribution from the torturers of Bashar’s regime. However, he refused to shake hands with Baerbock, Germany's Minister for Foreign Affairs, all the while offering his hand to her French counterpart. Additionally, it has been revealed that the newly appointed Minister of Justice has been seen overseeing the execution of two women in the rebel-controlled region of Idlib, accused of prostitution and adultery. Both these signs ought not to be omitted because they show hints of what the new regime truly leans toward, namely, a moderate-not-so-moderate Islamic state, with little regard to women's rights and the establishment of Islam as the state religion (hinted from the proposed curriculum that desecularizes education).
However, given the conservatism of Syrian society, such an approach could be more viable in the long term than a government that would unequivocally embrace Western values. An outburst of modernity and progressivism applied to a population with precarious education and sky-high rates of poverty, would not stick to the core being of the “common” man. As was seen in the Iranian Revolution and the emergence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the ‘70s in Egypt, the upheaval came from down below, from people left out spiritually by the regimes. Forms must be intertwined with the substance for a regime to endure. The process of Italian unification also provides evidence towards this direction, because in the end it was not the radicals such as Mazzini and Garibaldi who won the historical contest, but the moderate and all-encompassing Cavour—a precursor of Bismarck in the application of Realpolitik.
Having said all of this, I feel compelled to add that Al-Golani is playing a tremendously unifying role in the reconstruction of Syria. He is forced to play a Bismarckian role, satisfying, although partially, both his Islamist comrades and the appeals of European powers. However practical this approach may be, he appears as a shallow man, hiding his beliefs for the sake of his own country. A tad Machiavellian one may say, but the most successful path one could take, as history has countless times shown us. But the question remains: after managing to stabilize and revitalize the country, removing thus the reliance on external forces, will he turn to his current associates, or will he adhere to a more progressive mindset? That is yet to be seen.
Photo credits: Military Intelligence Directorate, 1996, Wikimedia Commons.