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Turbulent Tensions: What’s Going on Over Russia?

Pracheth Sanka

January

Dec. 25, 2024: Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, en route from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny, Chechnya, inexplicably crashed near Aktau, Kazakhstan, on the other side of the Caspian Sea. The intended flight path, a regularly scheduled trip, was a near-straight shot north towards Grozny, passing over parts of the Caspian Sea before entering Russian airspace over Makhachkala, Dagestan. However, the flight veered east towards Kazakhstan, severely changing altitude and losing GPS service before its fated descent. The crash killed 38 onboard, including both pilots, and left 29 survivors. 


Early reports by Russian and Azerbaijani aviation authorities supposed that foggy weather conditions could have been a factor in why the flight diverted toward Aktau, but this gave no explanation for why the flight crashed. Rosaviatsiya, the Russian aviation agency, proposed that a flock of birds may have been to blame for the incident. While these initial predictions indicated that the plane malfunctioned due to unfortunate natural occurrences, the suspected truth is less tame. Shortly after the incident, Azerbaijan Airlines announced that “external interference” was a factor in the flight's demise. Survivors recalled hearing multiple loud bangs as the flight approached Grozny and the flight’s GPS was jammed as it entered Russia, leading to speculation that Russian military operations were to blame for the disaster.


Though nearly a thousand kilometers away from the frontline, Ukraine has conducted drone strikes as far as Chechnya as part of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. Azerbaijani investigators believe that Russian missiles mistakenly struck down the plane as part of anti-drone operations. Rosaviastsiya also announced that Ukrainian drone strikes had been launched in Grozny before Flight 8243 took off, further providing evidence that the Russian military could have caused the crash. Azerbaijan's President, Ilham Aliyev, placed full blame on Russia, asking Russian President Vladimir Putin to admit guilt and offer compensation to the victims. Despite Aliyev’s pressure, which came with Western support, Putin refused to accept responsibility for the tragedy, only providing his condolences to the victims and those affected. 


This was not the first instance of a suspicious aviation disaster taking place over Russia. Russian airspace has long been plagued with cases of mysterious crashes and downed airplanes, such as Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 and the 2023 Wagner Group plane crash, which killed Russian rebel and paramilitary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. The Kremlin’s failure to cooperate in international investigations into these incidents, and their further refusal to accept any responsibility, point to their sinister involvement in some of aviation’s worst crashes. 


Flight MH17, which was en route from Amsterdam, Netherlands to Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, crashed over eastern Ukraine in July of 2014, killing all 298 passengers and crew on board. Russia-allied Ukrainian separatists shot down the plane during the war in Donbas, which was part of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. An international investigation headed by the Netherlands found that the separatists used Russian-owned missiles to bring down the flight. The same investigation prosecuted four individuals related to the incident, ultimately finding three guilty of the murders of the 298 killed. However, the Kremlin refuses to hand over the three men and continues to deny any involvement in the downing of the plane. Further probing by Dutch officials found that Putin may have even approved the funding and supply of the missiles used by the separatist forces, further implicating his involvement in the crash. While Dutch officials admitted that their evidence was insufficient for a proper conclusion, there were strong indications that Putin taking action may have led to the fate of Flight MH17.


Russia’s refusal to cooperate with international prosecutors and investigators permits a shadow of feigned innocence, a way for them to remain devoid of responsibility in the space of international relations, despite the implicit understanding that Putin and the Kremlin bear culpability for their actions. Take Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death in August of 2023, which took place two months after his failed mutiny against the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin, a once-close ally of Putin and leader of the private military Wagner Group, perished in a private plane crash north of Moscow, killing all passengers on board. Like the Azerbaijan Airlines crash, investigators noted that there was external interference at play and grenade fragments were found in the bodies of the victims, indicating foul play. Putin, who was open to an internal investigation, rejected outside help from the Brazilian company that manufactured the plane, while also dismissing claims that it was an assassination attempt on his behalf. A targeted attack on Prigozhin—who at the time was seen as an enemy of the state—would not be new to the Kremlin. Russian oligarchs and businessmen who oppose the regime have famously died in suspicious circumstances, like falling out of hotel room windows or suffering heart attacks; popular Russian dissident Alexei Navalny suddenly died while serving time in an arctic corrective prison colony, in what may have been a targeted poisoning


It is not below the Putin regime to have assassinated Prigozhin, or at the very least, had some suspect connection to his death. Russia’s failure, like in their other aviation ‘accidents’, to transparently investigate the incident highlights their aversion to culpability and responsibility, despite the rest of the world seeming to see past the Kremlin’s facade. Perhaps Putin truly believes that he has done no wrong, and it could be that these accidents were truly just that: accidents. Or maybe he knows that as long as these disasters take place within his borders, no one can fully know what he has or has not done. Whatever the case may be, the world has become wary of wandering in Russian air. The European Union’s aviation agency has warned all non-European airlines to avoid flying over Western Russia and to avoid being unintentionally—or intentionally—targeted by Russian defense systems. 


As the war wages on, and Putin’s power is checked, both externally and internally, flying into Russian airspace seems to be an increasingly dangerous venture. Airlines should heed the ominous warnings of their fated predecessors and avoid the tragedy of a downed flight. 


Photo credits: Wikicommons 


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