Grace Kelly
November 13, 2026
Every two years American voters head to the polls in November, when one third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives is up for election. Since these elections take place halfway through each president’s four-year term, they are referred to as the midterm elections. The results measure satisfaction with the current administration while also setting the tone for the president’s next two years in office.
With President Donald Trump’s approval rating now at 31%, the lowest ever recorded in U.S. history at the time of a midterm election, a majority of voters are dissatisfied with Trump’s performance and remain concerned about key issues such as immigration, inflation and rising gas prices. Historically, voters tend to “punish” the party of the president in the midterm elections. Experts now anticipate significant gains for Democrats this November, which would have wide consequences for the Trump administration. In response, Trump has promised massive handouts to voters, attempted to prevent states from counting votes of suspected noncitizens, and even threatened to impose martial law in the country if his party loses control of Congress.
What Is at Stake This November?
Currently, both the House and Senate are narrowly controlled by a Republican majority. Together the House and Senate make up Congress which controls federal taxes and spending, including military spending, creates and passes federal laws and confirms the president’s nominees for key executive and judicial positions. Additionally, Congress has powers to impeach and convict federal officials, override presidential vetoes, and conduct investigations to oversee the president and his advisors.
Congressional control has emboldened Trump to take actions that would otherwise be unthinkable, such as renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. As he told his supporters on a recent visit to Kentucky, "I don't think I could have done this in my first term. This is a much more powerful term. I can do stuff that's unbelievable."
Thanks to the Republican majority, Trump has bypassed legislative hurdles and issued hundreds of executive orders. These orders include backing Elon Musk-led efforts to eliminate hundreds of thousands of federal jobs and agencies such as the U.S. Agency for International Development, conducting large-scale Immigration and Customs Enforcement operations and implementing aggressive global tariffs.
A Democratic Congress
Recent polls show that 52% of likely voters favor Democratic candidates in the House of Representatives and just 41% support Republicans. This 11-point lead is the largest margin any party has achieved since 2008 and experts predict that Democrats will gain a large majority in the House while potentially also regaining control of the Senate.
Under a Democratic Congress, Trump could expect more accountability for any alleged violations of the Constitution or abuses of power. Additionally, with congressional power Democrats would be able to bring their own laws to the floor and limit federal spending.
According to Hakeem Jefferies, who is likely to become Speaker of the House if the Democrats gain a majority, House Democrats are preparing a number of actions in anticipation of congressional control. These include reversing Republican cuts on healthcare, pressuring the Trump administration to stop the war in Iran, ending Trump’s tariffs and blocking the administration’s appointments for key positions including the Supreme Court. Additionally, Democratic leaders of the House’s Oversight Committee plan to launch investigations into Trump and his family businesses, Health Secretary Robert Kennedy’s handling of vaccines, the Epstein files, immigration enforcement and corporate profiteering.
Bribes, Threats, and Claims of Interference
In response to Democrats' anticipated lead in the elections, Trump has urged supporters at the GOP midterm convention in September to “cheat like hell” and vote whether they are registered to or not. On the same day, he promised a $5,000 handout to every American adult if his party wins in the elections. This proposal, which would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion, has been criticized by both Democrats and Republicans as “impractical, imprudent and impossible to imagine actually happening.” Moveover, many are concerned that it represents an attempt to bribe the American people.
Democrats note a “persistent stream of threats and intimidation” directed at state and local election officials across the U.S., including Trump’s recent threat to imprison California election officials for counting mail-in ballots by voters the Trump administration claimed were noncitizens.
Earlier this week, elected officials in Virginia filed a lawsuit in federal court against the Trump administration, alleging that officials have “unlawfully claimed the authority to send armed federal agents to polling places.” Similarly, national Democratic groups and several leading Democrats have filed complaints following the Department of Homeland Security’s demands that states remove those suspected of being noncitizens from their voter rolls.
Democrats argue that the lists compiled by Republicans of alleged noncitizens have “crumbled upon the barest inspection.” This comes just months after the DHS declared that 16,000 Nevada voters may be noncitizens, before quickly reducing the claim to provide the state with a list of 185 suspected noncitizen voters. After state officials checked this list, all 185 voters were determined to be U.S. citizens.
Allegations of noncitizen voters represent just part of the various unsubstantiated claims Trump and his administration have made of election interference. Election officials are concerned that these efforts to undermine confidence in the election system may be used to challenge the results of the election if Democrats win. Trump has stated that he “regretted not seizing voting machines” in the 2020 election, and across the country, local and state governments are preparing for multiple scenarios of interference.
Additionally, some of his supporters have encouraged Trump to invoke the Insurrection Act to deploy the military in conjunction with the elections, a move that Trump has refused to rule out saying. Conservatives close to the president have stated that Trump would consider deploying the military, going as far as to threaten martial law if election results are unfavorable to Republicans.
Ultimately, the results of this election, and how they are accepted or challenged by the Trump administration, will reveal both what we can expect from Trump’s final two years in office as well as what type of behavior we can anticipate ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Photo Source: Sergeant Matt Hecht, rawpixel
